By Thomas Daugherty 3/11/03

Not a day goes by that the media does not report the existence of a flurry of public opinion polls regarding the impending war with Iraq. What's troubling about these polls is not so much the support for war that they seem to show but rather the selectivity of their use by news organizations and policy makers.

At best, support for war is conditional on a number of factors, including the number of American casualties that are sustained and whether or not the United States can secure a second resolution from the U.N. Yet, given the importance of this polling data to all parties involved, most of it remains buried behind the headlines. When it isn't, the questions it answers are generally too broad to give any type of definitive proof as to what people are really thinking. Besides this, public opinion can switch on a dime when the public has additional information. Which is why the free flow of this information is so important. A perfect example of this is a poll that was conducted by Le Moyne College and Zogby international in November 2002, surveying U.S. Catholic opinion on whether a war in Iraq would or would not constitute a "just war."

What's interesting is that while a majority of Catholics appeared to think that it would, when told that the American Conference of Catholic Bishops did not believe such a war would be "just," 57% of people said they agreed with the Bishops. Surprisingly, only 28% of Catholics knew that the Bishops did not consider this to be a "just war." This is the problem with using polls. While they can be useful, they can just as easily backfire. Which is why those who use them should excercise a great deal of caution. Particularly those who say that President Bush has overwhelming support for a war in Iraq. This is not the case.

For instance, a recent Zogby poll conducted February 19-20 shows that only 40% of people support a war if their are thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties. A very real possibility. In addition to this, only 43% of people support a war without significant U.N. or international support. Unfortunately, those on the left have not used these numbers to their advantage. They seem content on ignoring them. If the Democrats ever hope to win support for their cause they need to show that they can do more then just protest. Meanwhile polls will keep showing how apprehensive America is about war. Thomas Daugherty

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