Response from Bangalore, May 20, 2002

After reading a story on how tense things are in India I asked a friend in Bangalore for his take on the latest round of serious saber rattling. Ravi had this to say.

Well...India and Pakistan have been firing at each other for years now...and this is only an escalation and not really a new dimension.

A lot of these escalations earlier have been pure political posturing from both sides. 34 Indian army men/ families were killed two weeks back in the border area in a terrorist bombing attack. Everybody in India believes it was instigated by Pakistan (this is because the Indian govt has historically made it a habit to blame anything internal or external on Pakistan).

Now since everybody believes Pakistan is the culprit...the govt HAS to do something to show they are taking action. That something is all this war talk. However I dont believe this will actually end in war...because war will rock the boat and the current ruling party might fear losing the next election.

War Talk is good because u get votes for patriotism....but war itself is not good since you dont know what the consequences would be and you might possibly lose power.

Net Net....they'll keep talking and yaking...but wont pull the trigger.

Of course this scenario is purely based on rational thinking of petty politicians calculating their own self centered ends, which really is an accurate representation of Indian/ Pak rulers. But i guess we cant deny the possibility of irrational elements foolishly pulling the trigger.

I asked him, Can't anybody stop this?

The US absolutely can, if they start playing the role of a *fair* mediator. Right now, the US is acting as a mediator who has its own ulterior motives. As long as the US continues to base its policy decisions on opportunism and what suits itself, it can't bring peace to the region.

rgds ravi

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